Choose the forecast horizon
NOAA's short-range aurora product describes modelled auroral conditions on a short horizon. Its product time and valid time matter. A saved image from an earlier interval is not tonight's forecast simply because it is still visible in a browser tab. Use the current product and retain its legend before comparing it with a later view.
The experimental aurora dashboard groups aurora-related products. A viewline for a night and a short-range model answer different timing questions. Keep the experimental label and forecast period when describing the product. Do not use the darkest colour in one frame as a guaranteed viewing appointment for every location beneath it.
Kp is not a local visibility measurement
The planetary K-index product reports geomagnetic activity on a planetary scale. It is not a measurement of the brightness someone will see from a particular backyard. Distinguish observed Kp from a forecast of later activity, and keep the time bins visible. A peak forecast value does not imply that the same activity persists throughout an entire evening.
For a comparison between Alaska, the northern Midwest and a more southerly US city, inspect the relevant aurora product rather than translating one Kp number into an invented local probability. Geographic context matters, but a map remains a model. A location close to a displayed viewline should not be described as guaranteed to see an aurora or guaranteed not to see one.
Separate space weather from viewing conditions
Clouds, darkness and local sky conditions are separate from the geomagnetic product. A favourable model does not supply a complete local weather forecast. Check the locality's weather source independently, and make clear that a clear forecast is itself a forecast, not a promise. Camera images and reports can provide observations without proving that every nearby observer had the same view.
The PocketWorld space-weather overview provides available source-labelled context. It does not calculate a personalized aurora visibility forecast, reproduce every NOAA viewline or reserve a viewing time. A space-weather event on the globe should not be interpreted as a sighting at its marker location.
For a shareable explanation, record the NOAA product, issue and valid times, observed or forecast status, and original link. Keep cloud information separate and label any past photograph as an observation from its own place and time. This supports a useful comparison of forecasts without turning an attractive aurora map or a high planetary index into an unsupported guarantee for a particular US city.
Data sources
References are linked beside the explanations above. This evergreen guide does not report current incidents.